In this article for Mint, Vaidehi Tandel, junior fellow, and Paul Novosad, assistant professor of economics at Dartmouth University, discuss why factual information about India’s mortality rate is vital in planning the economy’s re-opening.
Excerpts below:
“As India and several other countries contemplate opening up their economies, one argument that supports the strategy of a gradual release from lockdown is that the country’s young demographic profile will act as a protective shield. Covid-19 has had a more severe impact on populations of older adults across countries. In Italy, the likelihood of dying on account of the disease was estimated at 20% among those over age 80, but less than 0.5% among those below 50. The corresponding figures for South Korea are 13% and 0.5%. Areas where older demographic groups form a higher share of the total population are thus likely to see higher deaths and a higher fatality rate overall.
India’s median age is 27 years, compared with South Korea’s 41 and Italy’s 47. There is, therefore, reason to believe that fatality rates may be lower in India. However, certain factors point in the opposite direction. In general, Indians at a given age are likely to have worse health than Italians and South Koreans. The prevalence of lung infections due to exposure to heavy air pollution or of co-morbidities may make the young much more vulnerable here. Healthcare quality also varies and many individuals may not have access to treatment.”
Read the full article here.
Note: This work was done by the author/s when they were a part of the IDFC Institute and is republished here with permission.
